Expected DA from January 2016 – Two Point increase in Dec 2015 may change 7th Pay Commission fitment formula :

Expected DA from January 2016 – Two Point increase in CPI for Dec 2015 could take it to 126% which is 1% more than what was reckoned for 7th Pay Commission revised Pay fixation.

If DA from January 2016 touches 126%, 7th Pay Commission fitment formula and Multiplication factor of 2.57 may require upward revision

Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of November 2015 has been released recently by Govt. We have one point increase in CPI for November 2015 which has moved from 269 to 270.

Consumer Price Index from January 2015 to November 2015

Month	Actual AICPI-IW
Jan-2015	254
Feb-2015	253
Mar-2015	254
Apr-2015	256
May-2015	258
Jun-2015	261
July-2015	263
Aug-2015	264
Sep-2015	266
Oct-2015	269
Nov-2015	270
Dec-2015	Not released

DA from January 2016 – Estimation for 125%:

Based on actual CPI-IW for 11 months from January 2015 to November 2015 which span from 254 to 270 and estimated index for the month of December 2015, it is almost certain that Dearness Allowance from January 2016 payable to Central Government Employees including Railway Employees and Defence Personnel will not be less than 125% (6% increase).
Even a 12 point fall in CPI-IW from 270 to 258 in December 2015 will not affect the DA from January 2016 clocking 125%.

DA from Jan 2016=	[(254+253+254+256+258+261+263+264+266+269+270+258)-115.76]*100/115.76
=	125 % (6% increase in DA from Jan 2016)

DA from January 2016 – Estimation for 126%:

Our Proposition discussed in the earlier article on the chances for DA from January 2015 reaching 126% (7% increase) still holds good as two point increase in the CPI-IW in December 2015 would take DA from January 2016 to 126%.
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